Quantitative and Research Methods in Planning:
Are Schools Teaching What Practitioners Practice?
Sanda Kaufman and Robert Simons
Journal of Planning, Education and Research, 1995, Vol. 15 #1, pp. 17-34
ABSTRACT
This paper offers a framework for reexamining the set of skills and techniques included in the quantitative and research methods curricula of American graduate planning programs. These offerings, viewed as the supply of skills, are compared to the demand -- skills and techniques used by U. S. planning practitioners. The analysis explores the match between supply, current demand, and skills and techniques practitioners claim they intend to use in the future. Results of the analysis are linked with 1986 work by Contant and Forkenbrock. The quantitative curricular offerings of planning programs are found to be relatively unresponsive to current and future practitioner demand for skills. Directions for possible curriculum changes are suggested.
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Table of ContentsIssues In Curriculum Design For Planning
A Framework for QRM Choices
Previous Supply-Demand Surveys
Data Collection and Sampling
Supply -- Planning programs
Demand -- Planning practitioners
Survey results
Analysis Of Survey Results
Changes in supply and demand for QRM in time
Current Supply - Demand Comparison
Current Supply - Future Demand Comparison
Notes
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Figures & TablesFigure 1, Location of responding planning programs
Figure 2, QRM Ranked by the Gap between Supply and Current Demand, 1992
Figure 3, QRM Ranked by Future Demand
Figure 4, QRM Ranked by the Gap between Supply and Current/Future Demand
Table 1, Selected Characteristics of Planning Programs Responding to the Survey
Table 2, Employers of Planning Practitioners Responding to the Survey
Table 3, Selected Characteristics of Planning Practitioners Responding to the Survey
Table 4, Planning School and Practitioner Responses to QRM Surveys, by Skill
Table 5, % Schools Teaching/Planners Using QRM, 1986
Table 6, % Schools Teaching/Planners Using QRM, 1992
Quantitative and Research Methods in Planning:
Are Schools Teaching What Practitioners Practice?
What quantitative and research methods (QRM) do planning programs teach graduate students? We examine key factors that shape and inform curriculum decisions and propose that practitioner demand for QRM should be a key factor, but not the only one. Using survey data, we assess practitioner demand and compare it to QRM supply -- school-taught techniques -- to inform the debate over quantitative and research curriculum design for the planning profession. This paper is linked to past research that has evaluated QRM demand and supply.
The first section proposes a framework for examining the role practitioner demand should play in curricular decisions. The second section describes the data collection. The third section details the approach taken here to compare the demand and supply of QRM, and presents results of the data analysis. The last section addresses the use of our results in curriculum redesign, and charts some directions for future research.
All American graduate planning programs teach some quantitative and research methods (QRM). What shapes the content of QRM curricula? What role does practitioner demand play in these decisions? The curriculum decision framework below identifies practitioner demand as one of several concerns factored into programs' curricular choices. This framework is useful in profiling any planning program, by making explicit the goals and constraints to which its curriculum responds. It also provides the context for our analysis of planning program and practitioner surveys.
The preoccupation with content of QRM courses is not unique to planning. Similar dilemmas are faced by public administration and political science programs (see, for example, King, 1982; McCurdy & Cleary, 1984; and, Rodgers and Manrique, 1992). For example, the National Association of Schools of Public Affairs and Administration (NASPAA), which accredits public administration programs, is wrestling with ways in which it should evaluate the quantitative content of curricula, to reflect the changing nature of practice and technology. Within multidisciplinary fields like planning, comprising academic inquiry as well as practice of public decision making, QRM teaching is time-intensive and QRM learning is often difficult. The effort to master quantitative skills sometimes appears to students to be non-commensurate with practical benefits. According to Feldt (1986), quantitative methods are generally unpopular with students and "techniques requiring large amounts of precise data and ... years of analysis are often inappropriate for planning." Therefore, programs need to reexamine periodically which QRM they teach, at what level, and whether they should be core or elective. And, to motivate students to invest effort in acquiring quantitative skills, programs need to give a realistic account of QRM relevance to current and future planning practice.
The menu of QRM courses strives to match each planning program's statement of mission and its view of what planners do and should do. In this sense, curricular decisions are goal-driven. However, constraints discussed below reshape curricula over time, creating the variation we observe across programs.
Philosophical Trends
Planning philosophies impinge upon curricular decisions.
Institutional Constraints
The organizational make-up of programs contributes greatly to the uniqueness of each program.
Technology
The sum of incremental advances in the technology of computing over the past decade can effect a qualitative change in quantitative reasoning, and in the communication of results to interested parties. The relative ease of performing computations on large data batches, conducting sensitivity tests, and displaying results graphically, can change planning practice. For example, it can alter planners’ relationship to clients, increasing public participation or alienating it further. The rate of adoption of cutting-edge technology varies among programs, despite the fact that QRM have become more accessible with increasingly user-friendly computer software.
Pedagogy
Pedagogical views shape QRM curriculum design, with resulting variation in teaching approaches and emphases across planning programs.
Competency levels
The level of competency to be attained in QRM courses bridges between student and practitioner considerations, in that it should be driven to an extent by practice. This complex curricular decision combines practitioner and student ability constraints with planning and pedagogical philosophies and with the limits on the number of hours required for graduation. The typology of competency levels we propose to use here, described below, is consistent with both Contant & Forkenbrock (1986) and Prosperi (1986).
Student Body Characteristics
Students' demographic and professional characteristics may affect the content and number of QRM courses offered.
Practitioners' Needs
Current practitioner needs are mirrored by the job market. Practitioners' future needs depend on the length of the horizon considered: incremental short-range changes do get reflected in the job market, while more drastic long-range changes typically become evident only in retrospect.
Of the curricular decision factors described above, planning philosophy, technology and practitioner demand have, arguably, a more consistent effect across programs, while institutional constraints, pedagogical views and the student body characteristics tend to be program-specific. If so, we should expect similarity in the kinds of QRM taught at planning programs, and variation in competencytime devoted to particular techniques and in competency levels sought.
The proposed curriculum decision framework highlights the fact that current practitioner demand is not the sole factor driving QRM menu choices, even if it is prominent among programs' concerns. For example, current demand may lag behind current supply because recent graduates exposed to cutting-edge techniques are typically not in the organizational positions where QRM choices are made. Further, QRM use may necessitate adoption of new technology requiring investments not always within the immediate reach of planning agencies. Technological lags are currently experienced, for instance, in the adoption of computer-aided design and geographic information systems, which typically require considerable investment in hardware and software, extensive staff training, and possibly even some organizational and procedural changes.
These examples suggest it might be a strategic mistake for planning programs to aim at balancing supply with current practitioner demand, especially in the area of highly technical skills relying on newer technologies. However, it might be equally unwise to neglect current demand for QRM and to fail to equip graduates with skills that will assist them in the job market. QRM supply and demand feed each other in ways that do not allow simple inference from data at one point in time. Therefore, we do not expect a one-time comparison of QRM supply with demand to show balance, but supply and demand changes over time should indicate whether, and to what extent, programs respond to various goals and constraints, including practitioner demand. Also, while not conclusive for normative purposes, practitioner demand should reveal whether planning programs are bringing QRM advances to bear on planning practice. Planning programs may want to consider both current and future demand in their QRM choices, and to keep records that enable the capture of changes in time.
Previous Supply-Demand Surveys
Two notable evaluations of the content of QRM planning curricula and their consonance with practitioner needs were performed in 1975 (Schon et al., 1976) and 1985 (Contant & Forkenbrock, 1986). In designing the present research, we set considerable weight on comparability of our results with the previous ones. The list of QRM we used to survey planning programs and practitioners incorporates the items covered by Contant & Forkenbrock and by the AICP planner survey of 1992, to help discern trends in some specific skills and techniques programs teach and planners use. For example, if planning programs do react to practitioner demand, we should expect changes from 1986 to 1992 in QRM taught (supply) to be in the direction that brings them closer to balance with the practitioner demand as assessed in 1986. If schools had an impact on practice, we should observe 1992 practitioner demand moving in the direction of 1986 supply of QRM.
Contant & Forkenbrock (1986) inquired about 27 QRM areas. They asked 65of 95 programs about the techniques they taught (22 QRM on average); and, they asked 69 planning directors from the AICP roster to what extent planners in their agency should possess knowledge about each listed technique. In addition to providing useful information about planning programs and about the planning practice of the time, this project compared QRM supply (techniques taught in programs) to demand (techniques found valuable by planners).
The comparison of current QRM offerings in planning programs with the Contant-Forkenbrock survey is limited by the lack of an exhaustive, non-redundant list of skills taught. Also challenging is establishment of a direct correspondence between courses taught and methods used by the practitioners. The lack of fully compatible longitudinal data also poses difficulties. Therefore, the value of our research lies as much in the results as in its structuring of the debate and the challenge to devise better tools for data collection to enable more accurate analyses in the future.
How should a planning program evaluate its QRM curriculum and change it if necessary? Our research evolved from an evaluation and change initiative stemming from faculty and student dissatisfaction with some aspects of the QRM courses at the Levin College of Urban Affairs (LCUA) at Cleveland State University. The LCUA effort yielded not only needed curricular changes, but also insights into the decision process of curricular design in general, and data on supply and demand of QRM for evaluating and changing QRM curricula in other programs and for debates over what planning students should learn. The data sets used to explore the match between demand and supply of QRM are described in the next section.
Data Collection and SamplingThe data collection for this project entailed a mail survey of planning programs in the U. S. and Canada, and a telephone survey of AICP-listed practicing planners in non-academic positions, on the teaching/use of 53 listed quantitative research methods (QRM).
Data on quantitative and research methods taught in graduate planning programs in the US, representing the supply of QRM was collected during Summer, 1992. Questionnaires were mailed to program chairs of all 87 planning programs with entries in the Guide to Graduate Education in Urban and Regional Planning (ACSP 1990). Program chairs were asked to delegate to the person(s) in charge of QRM instruction. After two follow-up mailings, 43 programs (53% of the 79 American programs, from 21 states and Puerto Rico, and two Canadian schools) had responded to the survey and had sent syllabi for QRM courses (see map,
Figure 1). The survey included questions on the departments' background and area of specialization, the structure of quantitative and research courses, and on the extent of use of 53 quantitative and research methods. These skills were culled from earlier work, as well as the AICP practitioner survey.The Planning Accreditation Board accredited 79% of respondents. The institutional home of 37% of respondents is a department of their own, with 63% based in another department (28% are located in colleges of architecture). 74% of respondents use the semester system, with the balance on the quarter system. The most frequently mentioned specialties of responding programs are shown in
Table 1. On average, 49 students (31 full time) were enrolled in our respondents' planning masters programs (ACSP 1990), which require on average 3 QRM courses, and offer on average 2.5 QRM electives. 43% of the programs encourage their students to attend QRM courses in other departments.Demand: Planning Practitioners
The demand for QRM is represented by the use patterns among planning practitioners. Telephone interviews were conducted with 106 practicing planners during Summer and Fall 1992. We used stratified random sampling (by state) of the 1990 AICP directory, from which we excluded all members with academic addresses.
Our respondents had an average planning experience of 17 years (with a low of 2.5 and a high of 44 years). Their average tenure in the current position was 6 years. Three quarters of the respondents were male.
Table 2 displays the respondents’ current employers by type, and Table 3 shows the areas in which respondents saw themselves most skilled.While the surveys and interviews elicited a wealth of information related to QRM teaching and patterns of use, the key data for the supply - demand analysis are the frequency of teaching, of practitioner use, and practitioner ratings of the relative importance of QRMs. We broadly defined QRM to include project methodology (e.g., linear programming, logit models), project design (research design, sampling), project implementation (surveys, data management), and analysis of results (descriptive and inferential statistics).
We compiled a QRM list consistent with Contant & Forkenbrock (1986) and AICP (1992), to assess change in use of techniques since 1986 and enable future analyses with 1992 as a baseline. As a result, our list contains several non-mutually exclusive QRM entries, particularly for statistics, which may limit the extent to which our results can be interpreted for those categories. Our sampling frames differ from earlier work.: Contant & Forkenbrock (1986) queried planning department chairs and planning directors about 27 QRM, while our surveys on 53 QRM were addressed to the faculty responsible for teaching QRM (at the discretion of the program chairs) and to AICP planners at several organizational levels (from the same pools of American planning schools and the AICP directory respectively).
Planning program respondents were asked which of 53 listed QRM they teach. Practitioners were asked if they or someone in their localized work unit (one level above or one level below) used the listed QRM. They were also asked to assess each skill's relative importance on a 1-5 scale, if used (0 if not used). Practitioners ranked each skill not currently being used in the work place by future importance. For ease of reference, alphabetically ordered QRM are displayed in
Table 4 with their supply and demand frequencies and practitioner importance ratings for current and future use.At responding graduate schools of planning the most frequently taught skills were descriptive statistics (at 95.1% of the respondents' programs), population projections (87.8%), and regression analysis (85.4%). The least frequently taught skills are multiattribute utility theory (4.8%), stochastic processes (4.8%), non-linear programming (9.5%) and queuing theory (9.8%).
Planning practitioners most frequently use budget preparation (98.7%). Least utilized are logit/probit models (39.7%), shift-share analysis (41.7%) and multiattribute utility theory (41.5%). The most highly rated skills (reflecting current time demands) were data collection (3.4), budget preparation (3.4) and scheduling (3.0). Future practitioner plans (for skills not already in use) are most likely to include GIS, data collection and algebra. The latter may indicate recognition of a need to brush up on basic math skills.
The frequency of teaching or use of each QRM provides an information base for comparison of program supply with practitioner demand for quantitative and research skills and for curriculum design. In the next section we analyze demand and supply trends using Contant and Forkenbrock's (1986) results as a baseline.
Our analysis has three time-related components. The first links our current supply frequency data to Contant and Forkenbrock (1986) demand results; the second, the pattern of gaps between current demand and supply of QRM, uses current frequency of QRM teaching/use; the third consists of our findings on a supply-demand comparison that factors in future practitioner demand for QRM. Our focus is curriculum redesign, so throughout the analysis we take the programs' perspective, examining the degree of balance with practitioner demand and identifying over- and under-teaching of QRM.
Changes in Supply & Demand for QRM in time
Using the frequency rankings of currently supplied QRM (
Table 4), we sought to replicate the approach used by Contant and Forkenbrock (1986) and Schon (1976), dealing with over- and under-emphasis of skills.We aggregated 1992 supply and demand frequencies into the three categories used by Contant and Forkenbrock, to identify changes in time.
Table 5 shows the 53 QRM included in our survey. The southwest - northeast diagonal (cells 7, 5, 3) lists QRM for which demand and supply are approximately in balance, based on reported frequency of teaching/using QRM. Cells above this diagonal contain overtaught QRM (with supply exceeding demand), and cells below this diagonal contain undertaught skills (supplied below the corresponding level of demand). For example, budget preparation, capital improvement plans, issues analysis, and scheduling, listed in cell 9, are in high practitioner demand but are infrequently taught by planning programs. Multivariate statistics in cell 1 appears low in practitioner usage but is very frequently taught.Arrows in
Table 6 show the supply changes between 1986 and 1992 against 1986 practitioner demand, for the 25 QRM common to Contant & Forkenbrock's study and ours (bold-type in Table 5). To interpret these changes, we propose the following two scenarios which differ in the underlying views of how curricular design should respond to practitioner demand:A test of this expectation would be to observe in 1992 most QRM moving up or down in supply (toward the southwest - northeast diagonal), to balance 1986 demand; and, sparsely populated off-diagonal cells.
A test of this expectation would be to observe in 1992 the supply of lower-complexity QRM (e. g., data collection, descriptive statistics) moving toward the southwest - northeast diagonal to balance 1986 demand; more complex skills above the diagonal (over-supplied, compared to demand); and, a shift to the right (increased demand) of techniques overtaught in 1986. The latter prediction assumes that planning programs are able to predict with some accuracy what QRM will come in handy to future practitioners, and also that 1986 - 1992 adequately spans the future needed for such trends to become noticeable.
Table 6 reveals some surprising changes over time. Only 8 of the 25 QRM common to the two lists were found in the same cell in 1986 and 1992. Of these, five (descriptive statistics, economic base analysis, regression analysis, population projections and survey research design) in cell 3 are in balance, at highest frequency of practitioner demand and highest frequency of supply by planning programs. None of these techniques are "cutting edge", consistent with the forward-looking scenario.
Interestingly, not one skill listed in 1986 registered an increase in supply. Shifts from 1986 to 1992 reflects a marked drop in supply: in 1992, programs were teaching 15 of 25 QRM less frequently than in 1986. The bottom row of the table (low supply, QRM taught by 0 to 40% of planning programs) was empty in 1986, but in 1992 it had acquired 11 techniques.
Of the 15 drops in supply, three are moves toward the diagonal (econometric modeling, gravity modeling and present value analysis), as would be expected under a current-balance scenario, were it not for the fact that these are not low-complexity skills. Of the three techniques that showed less demand by practitioners in 1992 (multivariate statistics, regression analysis and trip generation modeling), only one, trip generation modelling, dropped considerably in supply as would be expected as a result of the current-balance scenario -- more complex QRM not currently in demand fall in disfavor over time, as there is no influx of practitioners trained in their use. Four techniques migrated down from balanced cell 5 (medium supply and demand) into low supply, but two techniques moved down into cell 5: gravity modeling and present value analysis. Balanced cell 3 (highest demand, highest supply in 1986) gained nothing but lost supply in 5 techniques. Cell 8 (low supply, medium demand) gained 6 QRM in 1992, at the expense of both medium and high supply cells. 10 of the 15 supply decreases were high-to-medium, or medium-to-low supply.
The predominance of supply reduction, apparently unaccompanied by a parallel change in demand, is only surprising if we believe practitioner demand is the sole driving force behind curricular changes. We argued in the first section, however, that demand is but one of many factors influencing QRM decisions. Our results suggest practitioner demand has not even been a key factor. On the other hand, decline is consistent with part of Teitz’s (1974, p. 97) view that "the ultimate fate of most methods ... will be decline and replacement."
The drop in QRM supply from 1986 to 1992 may reflect planning programs’ response to student demand. Students may prefer fewer total credit hours towards a degree, or courses in other areas of planning. Under pressure to maintain or reduce the number of required credit hours -- to compete with weekend or executive Masters programs -- programs may make trade-offs among disciplines, which are made easier by the fact that, at least anecdotally, QRM courses are rarely student favorites. The cumulative character of QRM learning exacerbates the difficulty of teaching them, as planning programs cannot choose, for example, to teach time series analysis and skip regression, or to teach decision analysis without coursework in probability theory and statistics. A survey of planning students’ attitudes towards QRM would help test these hypotheses.
We noted earlier the difference among sampling frames: Contant and Forkenbrock (1986) surveyed AICP-listed planning directors, while we surveyed AICP-listed planners at all organizational levels, with greater variability in career stage as well as responsibilities and experience. Therefore, there are differences between the perspectives of staff planners and planning department heads, which undoubtedly affect the comparability of results. The functional work-unit level of the surveyed practitioners, however, may yield information that department heads themselves might have had to retrieve from the same source, since they are usually not directly involved with daily activities and may be less familiar with actual planning practice "in the trenches" at the other organizational levels. The consistence of results across the two demand surveys of 1986 and 1992 (see Table 6), suggests similarity of views among the two groups -- planners and department heads. Note also that our analysis focuses on supply, where the sampling frame differences were less drastic: Contant and Forkenbrock surveyed department chairs, while we asked chairs to pass the survey to the faculty most involved in the QRM curriculum.
Current Supply - Demand Comparison
Results of the previous analysis suggest that on average practitioner demand plays a limited role, if any, in curricular decisions. If planning programs wanted to incorporate practitioner demand in their QRM curricula according to either the current-balance or the forward-looking scenario, they would have to close some of the supply-demand gaps. To assess these gaps, we extended Contant and Forkenbrock's study by considering both the frequency of QRM teaching/use, and the importance practitioners attach to them.
Practitioners rated current QRM importance on a 1-5 scale, relatively to the time spent using a skill; those who were not currently using a skill rated expected future usage on the same 1 - 5 scale. Opinions about future use of a QRM are less informed than those referring to actual use, but nevertheless practitioners observe and evaluate products of QRM they do not use. They read reports, and take courses and workshops which expose them to QRM not available at their office. And, software demonstrations can also effectively inform and create demand for future use. For example, practitioners are acquainted with GIS products even if their organization has not acquired the software.
The composite measure of current demand is the product between reported frequency of use and average importance of each QRM. The current demand - supply gaps of Figure 2 are differences between currently taught QRM and skills currently valued by practitioners, in descending order of the gap.
Due to the nature of their measures, supply-demand gap findings should be viewed as ordinal. Alternatively, we may want to consider supply - demand gaps of less than approximately 15% to represent balance. This decision rule yields a set of 21 balanced QRM, (40%, see Figure 2). 8 QRM (15%) appear undertaught, and 24 QRM (45%) are overtaught. How does the inclusion of perceived practitioner importance affect the demand - supply comparison? We compare the results displayed in Tables 5 and 6 (based only on reports of frequency of teaching or use) with the gap spectrum produced by considerations of QRM practitioner importance.
Of the 25 QRM common to 1986 and 1992 lists, 8 are in balance in Figure 2, compared to 9 in Table 6. Only 8 of the 20 QRM balanced in Table 5 appear in balance in Figure 2, and only one of these, nonlinear programming, also appears in the 1986 list. Nine QRM from cell 9 of Table 5 (low supply, medium demand) appear in balance in Figure 2. These differences stem from factoring in the practitioners’ perceived QRM importance. The 24 QRM in excess supply in Table 5 predominate among the 30 skills overtaught by 15% or more. Three statistics-based QRM appear overtaught (with gaps of more than 60%) relative to current practitioner demand, as they do in Table 5. The appearance of oversupply of inferential and multivariate statistics may be partly due to the redundancy of the QRM list in the area of statistics. The oversupply of other QRM such as GIS, shift-share analysis, gravity models and input-output analysis is consistent with the forward-looking scenario. Budget preparation, issues analysis, and scheduling (cell 9 in Table 5 -- high demand and low supply) top the list of the 8 undertaught QRM in Figure 2, with demand exceeding supply by a substantial margin (above 60%).
The effect of incorporating in the analysis practitioner ratings of QRM importance was to shrink the undertaught set to about a third of the 24 QRM in Table 5, and to inflate the overtaught set. This effect may be due to a measure of inertia. Practitioners may use some QRM past their obsolescence point, simply because they have conquered them, often at great expense of time and effort. For the same reasons, they may reluctantly switch to unfamiliar QRM or use them extensively, deeming them less important.
Current Supply - Future Demand Comparison
Planning program curricula do not respond only to current demand, and as argued earlier, they should not do so. To explore the relationship between current supply and future practitioner demand we examined the importance attached by responding practitioners to QRM they did not use currently (Figure 3). Future demand scores were expressed as proportions of the top ranked skill (GIS), which showed highest future demand in the sample. Data collection and algebra rank next highest at .65 and .55 respectively. Market area analysis, economic impact analysis, descriptive statistics, data base management, cost-benefit analysis, CAD, capital improvement plans, calculus and budget preparation all follow at an average of .45.
Figure 4 shows the ordered gap between current supply and the combined current and future practitioner demand (weighted equally). This step needs cautious interpretation: current and future demand as measured in the survey are not completely commensurate, and the equal weighting is normative. Planning programs wishing to explore various curriculum designs and their match with current and future practice could reproduce this gap ranking with different weights attached to current and future demand.
Considering again gaps of less than 15% to represent balance, the 22 undertaught QRM (41%) gain at the expense of the balanced and overtaught skills of Figure 2. Now 22 QRM (41%) appear undertaught, compared to 28% in Figure 2. Long-range demand for budget preparation exceeds supply to the largest extent, followed by demand for issues analysis and scheduling. Interestingly, these skills can be taught relatively independently, with no prerequisites. Other undertaught QRM such as decision analysis and forecasting are cumulative, in that their teaching relies on completion of prerequisites. Since the undertaught set is dominated by substantive QRM (e. g., capital improvement plans, market area analysis), high demand for these cumulative and substantive QRM hides an implicit need to teach other QRM that practitioners may not have identified as frequently used, leading to their overtaught or balanced appearance. For example, students of decision analysis or forecasting are greatly helped by coursework in probability theory, ranked at the bottom of Figure 4 among the most overtaught, along with a host of statistical procedures.
The balanced set of 14 QRM (26%) in Figure 4 contains a subset of the 43% balanced QRM of Figure 2, and 6 skills which appeared mostly undertaught previously. Most of this balanced set comprises highly complex QRM such as nonlinear programming, multiattribute utility theory and factor analysis, all of which could not be taught without prerequisites. Again, this outcome suggests additional unrevealed practitioner demand for the more basic quantitative skills which ranked as overtaught. The overtaught set has shrunk to 32% in Figure 4, compared to 43% in Figure 2, but much of this subset is still composed of statistics-related QRM.
These results suggest that planning programs mostly do not teach the QRM practitioners use and deem important currently, and not even what they expect to use in the future. However, the pattern of results gives no license to interpret this apparent mismatch as a failure of planning programs to become relevant to practice. Rather, it buttresses the more complex view of QRM curricular decisions proposed in the first section, and points to several directions for needed research, discussed in the last sections.
The analysis of the demand-supply QRM gaps shows the possible use of these data for curricular evaluation and change in a planning program. While the proposed framework of the first section adds many other considerations, practitioner demand for QRM can play a role in curricular decisions. Figure 4 illustrates how current and future demand for QRM can be combined to inform curricular choices. How should the current and future demand weights be determined?
Planning programs that decide to incorporate demand levels in their supply decisions need to select normatively the weights to be attached to current and future practitioner demand. Not surprisingly, to a large extent this choice hinges on the whole set of factors discussed in the first section: practitioner demand weights correspond to strategies the planning programs need to adopt in order to serve their students and communities.
Our survey results can help a planning program in structuring the debate when evaluating the adequacy of its QRM sequence. We tested their use in 1992 at the Levin College of Urban Affairs (LCUA) at Cleveland State University, when we were asked to study the adequacy of the College's QRM sequence, and to propose changes. Any change initiative has to be accompanied by a process enabling implementation by including, informing, and fostering consensus. Our mandate did not encompass debate over the underlying planning philosophy or major technology shifts (beyond software). So the information base for designing and negotiating change at LCUA involved mainly establishing the degree of congruence between the QRM supplied by LCUA courses and current practitioner demand for QRM.
LCUA is a commuter school catering largely to in-service students. It has a new, unaccredited planning Master degree, and 11 planning faculty. LCUA also offers Master programs in Urban Studies and Public Administration, as well as an undergraduate degree and a doctorate in Urban Studies. Total graduate student enrollment, including full and part time students, is about 200. All Master programs at LCUA share the same core sequence of two quantitative methods courses.
The bimodal distribution of incoming math, writing and quantitative reasoning skill levels tends to frustrate both students and faculty. A quarter system and the typical scheduling of QRM courses in one weekly night session of 3.5 hours combine to leave a rather narrow window of student heightened awareness. These factors, together with a widespread student view that the two QRM courses are a test of endurance, led to a perceived need for a QRM sequence reassessment.
We examined the supply-demand gap profiles and designed several alternatives consistent with our goals and criteria, differing mainly in the relative weighting of supply, current and future demand, and in the handling of our students' bimodal entry skill levels. The alternative eventually implemented reflects the realities of institutional and technological constraints as well as philosophical differences expected among multidisciplinary faculty. The gap analysis helped this task in two ways: it allowed testing of alternatives based on different demand and supply weights corresponding to different faculty views; and, it contributed to the communication of results to other faculty who found the information transparent and supportive of debate. Clearly, change implementation hinges critically on consensus, and using the supply-demand gap tool enabled a measure of consensus at LCUA.
ConclusionsThis research extends the information available to planning programs for making curricular decisions in the area of quantitative and research methods. Our approach consisted of assessments and comparisons of supply -- QRM courses taught by planning programs -- with demand -- QRM currently used or intended for future use by practicing planners. We linked our results to previous studies to identify QRM demand and supply trends.
The proposed curriculum decision framework highlights the fact that practitioner demand, while prominent among programs' concerns, is not the sole factor driving QRM menu choices. Therefore, the comparison of QRM supply with demand at one point in time should not have been expected to show balance. However, supply and demand patterns in time should reveal whether practitioner demand is factored in QRM curricular decisions, and whether planning programs are successful in bringing QRM advances to bear on planning practice.
Our demand-supply analysis indicated the expected imbalance between supply and demand. Only 43% of QRM were supplied in balance with 1992 demand, and even fewer, 26%, balanced supply with combined present and future demand. Interestingly, the undertaught QRM were of the non-cumulative type, in that typically their teaching does not have to build on previous coursework (budget preparation, issues analysis and scheduling). In contrast, the QRM in the group that balanced demand and supply tended to be cumulative, and overtaught QRM were typically those serving as prerequisites to the cumulative QRM.
The comparison with the Contant and Forkenbrock study (1986) revealed a rather surprising lack of responsiveness among planning programs over time to practitioner demand for QRM. The observed diminishing trend in QRM contradicts both our proposed "current-demand" and "forward-looking" scenarios: no attempt to either balance current demand or create future demand for cutting-edge methods was apparent. Since the diminishing supply trend is not accompanied by a corresponding drop in practitioner demand, we are led to conclude that planning programs do not seem to teach what practitioners practice, and not even what practitioners should practice.
What framework factors other than practitioner demand could account for the observed decline in average patterns of supply? This change would have been expected if planning philosophy had shifted towards fewer quantitatively based arguments. While institutional constraints could also be responsible for the decline, their effect was not expected to be consistent across programs. Programs' sensitivity to students' demographic profiles and quantitative abilities may contribute to the explanation. Programs could choose to respond to students' incoming inadequacies by providing remedies to enable all to acquire competency in QRM; or, especially if overly dependent on student retention to maintain viability, they could choose to reduce the QRM requirements. The decreasing supply trend we observed (
Table 2) is consistent with the second path. Note that the practice of using consultants may warrant further investigation, to establish its nature and extent, and to explore whether it could be related to the programs’ decision to reduce QRM supply.The curriculum design framework was proposed to assist in the use of our supply-demand results in redesigning QRM offerings in planning programs. The framework suggests some areas needing further investigation. For example, student demographic trends and a survey of students' interests, experience, and incoming skill levels may shed light on the observed drop in QRM supply. A survey of available technology and its use at schools and planning offices may also help explain the observed QRM supply and demand patterns. Content analysis of planning programs' syllabi may inform on the nature of variation in offerings among schools, as well as on the competency levels achieved across programs, which may have a serious effect on current demand for QRM.
The effect of available textbooks and teaching materials on the content and pedagogy used in QRM courses should not be underestimated, although it was not explicitly included in the present framework. Ideally, teaching materials can be devised and tailored to the goals and content of any program. In practice, however, time and resource constraints as well as the nature of academic rewards lead to second-best approaches. Courses often rely on available textbooks, which go against Schuster’s caution to "resist falling into the trap of teaching statistics" (Schuster, 1989). Current textbooks and their impact on QRM teaching, whose assessment exceeded the scope of this study, should be a part of future research agendas.
Several hypotheses were advanced in the first section, in presenting the theoretical framework for curricular decisions. They suggest the need to pursue research that would elucidate the decreasing trend in QRM supply by planning programs. For example, to what extent is there pressure to contain or reduce the number of credit hours required for a degree? Do students dislike the study of QRM or is this a symptom of dissatisfaction with teaching approaches in this area? Does the decrease in QRM supply match a decrease in the degree of preparedness of incoming students, or does it correspond to a decrease in the number of new faculty ready and willing to teach QRM? Finally, is there a trend toward the specialization of a few (consultants) that supersedes the need to teach QRM to the many?
As was briefly mentioned in the first section, planning is not unique in its QRM teaching and use needs. Public administration and political science, programs, for example, face much the same challenges in designing QRM courses relevant to practice. The similarities and differences among these academic/practice fields in teaching and use of QRM need to be examined, to establish to what extent approaches and materials are transferable among these disciplines. This need is heightened by the fact that almost two thirds of graduate planning programs sampled were housed with other disciplines.
The periodic assessment of QRM supply and demand is necessary, if planning programs are to serve well the planning profession in all its diversity. However, the difficulties encountered in this study should serve to caution those who will offer to take stock in the future. Comparability with past studies is important, but challenging and difficult to maintain, as the lists of QRM taught or in use tend to change. One avenue for future exploration is the compilation of a QRM list that is based at least in part on practitioner responses to an open-ended interview that would allow the researcher to identify and eliminate problems of mismatch between QRM names and content, as well as problems of redundancy and lack of relevance to practice. Such an investigation might also result in a list that reflects the subordinate, but necessary role of some QRM (such as probability theory) which would otherwise persist in the overtaught category simply because they are building blocks for the more complex QRM. It should be noted, however, that the difficulties of QRM demand and supply assessment go beyond survey design intricacies.
Surveys are afflicted by declining response rates for several reasons: they are time-consuming, individually unrewarding, and proliferating in all walks of life. Electronic communication may alleviate in the future some of the tedium associated with managing, responding to, and compiling results of surveys. Until such a time, the exercise will often be taxing on all involved. In addition, planning programs are very diverse in content, and practitioners span an increasing array of tasks (Glasmeier & Kahn, 1989). Therefore, averages become less instructive and more may be gleaned from the study of individual program and planner profiles. Future initiatives to assess supply and demand of QRM may need to use a combination of surveys, and interviews to capture philosophical differences, institutional constraints and strengths, and emerging planner roles. A component of this system which received the least attention in the past is the planning student, who does, and should, affect planning programs’ content.
Location of responding planning programs
Selected Characteristics of Planning Programs Responding to the Survey
|
Top planning specialties |
% Responding Planning Programs |
|
Economic development Land use planning Environmental planning Physical planning International development Transportation planning |
64.3 62.8 51.2 46.5 41.9 38.1 |
Note: Percentages do not sum to 100% because respondents claimed more than one specialty.
Employers of Planning Practitioners Responding to the Survey
|
Employer type |
% respondents |
|
Large city/county government Private/consultant State or federal government Metropolitan/regional government |
42.8 20.0 14.3 7.7 7.6 |
Note: Percentages do not sum to 100% because not all employer categories are reported.
Selected Characteristics of Planning Practitioners Responding to the Survey
|
Respondent considers self most skilled at |
% respondents |
|
Comprehensive planning Administration Current planning Land use planning Transportation planning |
20.8 15.1 12.3 9.4 8.5 |
Note: Percentages do not sum to 100% because not all skill areas are reported.
Planning School and Practitioner Responses to QRM Surveys, by Skill
|
QRM SUPPLY
% Programs teaching QRM |
DEMAND
% Practitioners using QRM |
Current Demand Importance 1-5 scale |
Future Demand Importance 1-5 scale |
|
|
1. Algebra |
40.5 |
79.5 |
1.7 |
0.6 |
|
2. Budget preparation |
34.1 |
98.7 |
3.4 |
0.5 |
|
3. Calculus |
14.5 |
53.8 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
4. Capital improvement plans |
39.0 |
85.9 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
|
5. Computer-Aided Design |
31.7 |
60.3 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
|
6. Computer programming |
50.0 |
75.0 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
|
7. Content analysis |
24.4 |
68.7 |
1.9 |
0.4 |
|
8. Cost-benefit analysis |
65.9 |
85.7 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
|
9. Database management |
80.5 |
88.5 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
|
10. Data collection |
80.5 |
94.9 |
3.4 |
0.7 |
|
11. Decision analysis |
36.6 |
82.9 |
2.5 |
0.4 |
|
12. Descriptive statistics |
95.1 |
87.0 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
|
13. Econometric modeling |
38.1 |
47.4 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
14. Economic base analysis |
75.6 |
76.6 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
|
15. Economic impact analysis |
63.4 |
83.1 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
|
16. Factor analysis |
19.0 |
55.4 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
17. Financial analysis |
58.5 |
83.1 |
2.1 |
0.4 |
|
18. Forecasting |
70.7 |
85.9 |
2.7 |
0.3 |
|
19. GIS |
78.0 |
67.1 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
|
20. Gravity modeling |
65.9 |
50.6 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
|
21. Hypothesis testing |
78.0 |
61.5 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
|
22. Inferential statistics |
80.5 |
55.8 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
|
23. Input-output analysis |
61.0 |
50.0 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
|
24. Issues analysis |
19.5 |
89.5 |
3.1 |
0.3 |
|
25. Life-cycle costing |
17.1 |
61.5 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
|
26. Linear programming |
33.3 |
51.9 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
27. Logit/Probit modeling |
23.8 |
39.7 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
|
28. Market area analysis |
46.3 |
79.2 |
2.0 |
0.5 |
|
29. Migration |
56.1 |
66.7 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
|
30. Modal split modeling |
29.5 |
55.6 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
|
31. Multiattribute utility models |
4.8 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
|
32. Multivariate statistics |
75.6 |
50.0 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
|
33. Nonlinear programming |
9.5 |
45.1 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
|
34. Nonparametric statistics |
54.8 |
45.8 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
|
35. Operations research |
11.9 |
65.3 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
36. Population projections |
87.8 |
84.6 |
2.6 |
0.0 |
|
37. Present value analysis |
56.1 |
74.4 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
|
38. Probability theory |
61.0 |
58.4 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
39. Queuing theory |
9.8 |
50.0 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
40. Regression analysis |
85.4 |
67.5 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
|
41. Regression problems |
78.0 |
56.6 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
|
42. Research design |
75.6 |
76.6 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
43. Risk analysis |
12.2 |
61.0 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
|
44. Sampling |
78.0 |
84.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
45. Scenario construction |
22.0 |
73.3 |
1.9 |
0.3 |
|
46. Scheduling |
14.6 |
86.8 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
|
47. Shift-share analysis |
65.9 |
41.7 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
|
48. Simulations |
34.1 |
67.9 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
49. Stochastic processes |
4.8 |
48.4 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
50. Survey implementation |
53.7 |
83.3 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
51. Survey research design |
70.7 |
83.3 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
52. Time series analysis |
39.0 |
52.6 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
53. Trip generation modeling |
3.0 |
62.8 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
% Schools Teaching/Planners Using QRM, 1992
% Schools Teaching/Planners Using QRM, 1992
Changes in Supply from 1986 to 1992 in Response to 1986 Demand for QRM
QRM Ranked by the Gap between Supply and Current Demand, 1992
QRM Ranked by Future Demand
QRM Ranked by the Gap between Supply and Current/Future Demand

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Schon, D., Cremer, N. S., Osterman, P. and Perry, C. 1976. "Planners in Transition: Report on a Survey of the Alumni of MIT’s Department of Urban Studies, 1960-71." Journal of the American Institute of Planners, #42, pp. 193 - 202.
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We thank LCUA's Dean David Sweet who funded this research, and our colleague Michael Spicer who provided the impetus for it. We are grateful to all faculty and planners who took the time to respond to our surveys. We had the benefit of suggestions from many of our Levin College colleagues. Special thanks to William Bowen and Lawrence Keller who helped compile the list of skills central to our work. We valued the constructive suggestions of our three anonymous reviewers. Any errors of fact or interpretation are, of course, ours.
n
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